Homepage http://drchrisbarnes.co.uk



Dr Chris Barnes’  Climate Change Papers


1.      Some very short comments on the relationship between the Sun’s newly discovered magnetic year, Earth’s climate and Planetary beat hypothesis, by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and Educational Consultants. E-mail manager @ bsec-wales.co.uk   Released into Public Domain without full reference list  April 15th 2013.  http://www.drchrisbarnes.co.uk/PBMAG1.HTM


2.      North Wales ( Gwynedd) Winter and  Summer Temperatures since 1917 influence of Solar  Cycle and  prediction of a QBO ( quasi-biennial oscillation) and definition of its average length, by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and Educational Consultants, April 2015



Abstract :  Control and feedback mechanisms in the earth climate system are very briefly discussed.   NAO and the QBO are strong indicators of winter temperature in Wales but are rather more irrelevant in summer.  Thus a search for a solar link to summer weather is made as an alternative. This   suggests Gwynedd’s recent extremes of weather could be due to changes in the solar cycle. Analysis of a century’s worth of UK climate anomaly data suggests that a shorter or longer than average solar cycle gives rise to an increased incidence of both colder than normal winters and hotter than average summers   with a very high statistical result for summers. The present work also suggests that by 2099 Gwynedd will be on average 1.07 C warmer which is closest to the IPCC B1 scenario and at the VERY LOWEST END of their predication scale but that most of the change could be solar induced. It is incredibly instructive to remove the data for the last and very unusual 14 yearlong solar cycle.  If this is done then the warming slope changes into a dramatic cooling slope showing a change of -5.7 C in the next 100 years. The data for winter and summer temperature anomaly also allows extraction of a sinusoidal varying QBO like component with a length of approximately 24.9 months  if one constrains the solar cycle to its average length.     http://www.drchrisbarnes.co.uk/Doc4.HTM




3. A New Method for Medium Term Temperature Anomaly Forecasting and Climate Prediction by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and Educational Consultants http://drchrisbarnes.co.uk/clipred01c.htm    Published online May 2015



A New Method for Medium Term Temperature (summer season) Anomaly Forecasting and Climate Prediction is    introduced based solely on a polynomial data file linked QBO and temperature behaviour in North Wales since 1948.  The key is in choosing two months to establish QBO rate of change, here the preceding January and April are employed.   Complex climate modelling is NOT   required because the qbo via its tele-connections is a complex and multivariate indicator of drivers from above and below including natural drivers such as solar and volcanism in addition to anthropogenic drivers such as greenhouse gases, wind farms, power systems, radio transmitters and aviation.      Taking a naďve approach to results    leads to a perceived warming of about .22 C per decade which is consistent with the IPCC’s most recent estimates.  However, taking a more detailed analysis leads to a cyclic understanding of recent warming and cooling in terms of solar and volcanic activity.        The infamous ‘hockey stick’ period of warming may have been created by a coincidental combination of a fall in volcanism and a rise in solar activity the likes of which may only be seen either once every  792 years ; 2640 years or 5192 years based on combinations of the three known volcanic, seismic and Gleissberg cycles.      The first two of these take us back to the medieval warm period and Roman warm period consecutively.  At least in North Wales it would appear we have now entered a cooling phase which could last    several decades.



4. Global anthropogenic temperature change correlates better with  total energy in world’s electricity grids than with total energy use. Alternative title:  EEP (Energetic Particle Precipitation) the key to climate change   By Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and Educational Consultants email manager@bsec-wales.co.uk      First published online without  references August 2017.   http://www.drchrisbarnes.co.uk/eep.htm



5.    Putting the Meteors back in Meteorology by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and Educational Consultants, E-mail doctor.barnes@yahoo.co.uk  








 The combined effects of meteor showers, solar flux and GCR on the interdecadal climate in the UK.  At lease recently, these are seen to be in control with no evidence of warming.   The UK temperature anomaly can be accounted for by a simply algorithm.




1.            In the UK in the inter-decadal period 2005-2011 annual rainfall is most strongly correlated with cosmic ray flux. The much higher correlation coefficient for Cosmic Rays is supportive of the notion of a stronger, real physical effect and is also supportive of the work of Svensmark.     Alternatively, and/or additionally meteoric debris does provide the nucleation material for rainfall but cosmic rays provide the correct atmospheric electricity conditions, see Tinsley (2000) and Carslaw and Harrison (2002).


2.            Annual temperatures can be correlated with a simple linear algorithm (SFCM) involving cosmic ray flux (C), solar flux (SF) and radio meteor flux (M) according to equation (1).


Delta Temp = -.707 + 2.916* SFCM …………………………………………………………………(1)


Where SFCM =   {(SF-C) +M}    P<.023 so statistically significant



6.   Simple solar system measurements show the irrelevance of Carbon Dioxide to present day earth temperature.  http://drchrisbarnes.co.uk/Solarsys.htm




AGW and AGW politics is briefly discussed.  Scientists with alternative and additional theories to AGW are named and their theories discussed and summarized. The author’s own previous  work which also shows CO2 is not needed to account for recent UK temperatures is discussed.  Other second order effects stronger than CO2 are discussed.  In the rest of this work a treatment   using simple solar system measurements to show the irrelevance of CO2 to     excess planetary temperature is developed.   The work while in support of Nikolov and Zeller does not directly prove their hypothesis, but it does show the irrelevance of CO2.   The conclusion reached    is that EITHER:  Nikolov  and Zeller are correct or that CO2 warming effect  requires  concentrations much, much higher than those we have a present.  A small second order effect exists as the atmospheric composition approaches very high  carbon dioxide concentrations.   Given the exponential nature of the increase it is estimated that an atmospheric composition of 13.5% CO2 would cause some .8C of warming.   Extrapolating to present levels of CO2 i.e.  .0415% yields some 3 milli degrees Kelvin of warming i.e. totally insignificant and about an order of magnitude less than my previous estimates!   CO2 could still be a ‘greenhouse’ gas of very minor, indeed irrelevant   proportions but given our real and mobile atmosphere with convection as the main means of shifting heat we need not worry about CO2 induced warming in the foreseeable future. The author’s other personal concerns regarding climate warming, especially the cirrus cloud caused by aviation and the effects of power systems on clouds are re-iterated.     Additionally, however and as an offset, the author’s previous work is suggestive that we are entering a period of natural cooling for which we should all be prepared.