Some very short comments on the relationship between the Sun’s newly discovered magnetic year, Earth’s climate and Planetary beat hypothesis, by Dr Chris Barnes, Bangor Scientific and Educational Consultants. E-mail manager @ bsec-wales.co.uk Released into Public Domain without full reference list April 15th 2015.
Planetary beat hypothesis and Solar Fourier Domain analysis are very briefly reviewed . McIntosh’s theory of solar magnetic banding is introduced. A new hypothesis linking the two on the basis of sun- earth system long timescale resonance is proposed and tested. Planetary cycles in solar magnetic effect and hence climate are predicted, evidence of which is found using completely separate methodologies such as satellite observation; sunspot observation; radio-isotope studies and planetary beat. The values fit very well with hind-cast warm and cold periods going back to the dark ages cold period. The prediction is that while we are still overall within the modern warm period there could well be a Dalton like minimum in the period 2025-2046 accentuated by modern aviation and ship transport either cancelling out some or all of modern warming yet with the possibility that some solar warming resumes again until circa 2180.
Ever since the discovery of the famous ‘hockey stick’ effect in the plot of recent global temperatures there has been, in some quarters, and almost climate hysteria with fears of ‘runaway’ global warming. Indeed the worst case IPCC estimates are some +4C of global warming by the year 2100 .
However, with the advent of the new planetary beat hypothesis of global climate change which basically suggests that harmonic gravitational influences of the planets in the solar system can influence the sun( possibly its corona) , solar output, irradiance and/or magnetic behaviour see for example Morener (2013) and Scafetta (2012) and ( 2013) and (2014) (a)  and (b)  some potentially very different conclusions can be reached about earth’s future climate, in that a potentially Dalton like minimum is predicted for circa 2040.
Part of the criticisms of solar beat hypotheses have been can such tiny planetary gravitational effects sufficiently influence the sun. Further, it is easy to extract harmonic series from any aspect of solar behaviour using Fourier Domain Techniques but how real are their meanings.
Very recently indeed, it has been revealed that the sun has its own approximately 330 day ‘year’ with respect to the movement of its magnetic bands, see McIntosh et al 2015 .
Since the solar magnetic year and earth year length do not coincide exactly, it is proposed that maybe the solar magnetic effect on the earth would only maximise climatically 330x365.25 days i.e. once every 330 years or so and at other times would have lesser effect. Since the 330 day period would appear to be the time for magnetic bands to travel the entire solar pole to pole distance I would expect there may be hemispheric effects and harmonic multiple effects as well of circa 165 ( 1st sub-harmonic) and 990 days ( third harmonic) which following my original hypothesis would turn into sun-earth synchronisation periods of 165 and 990 years.
Long prior to McIntosh, Lean and Brueckner(1993)  have observed a 155 day and a 323 day periodicity in sunspot in occurrence rate of solar flares and in sunspot blocking function.
Delache et al have observed long period oscillations in solar diameter measurements of the order of 1000 days (2.7 years) which I feel may be synchronous with the third harmonic described above.
Finally Richardson et al (1994) point out that The IMP-8 and Voyager 2 spacecraft have recently detected a very strong modulation in the solar wind speed with an approximately 1.3 year period. Combined with evidence from long-term aurora and magnetometer studies, this suggests that fundamental changes in the Sun occur on a roughly 1.3 year time scale. This appears to be roughly half of the above period and so may be related. Translated into a sun-earth system resonance this would be equal to 474 years. 155+323 = 478 years which is remarkably close.
The next part of my hypothesis is to suggest that there ought to be hind cast major climatic disturbances with periodicities associated with the above and further that in the grand scheme of things which is our Solar system, there may be synchronisation with the planetary beat effects described by Morener and Scafetta. The period of 30 days is also interesting for this suggests a resonance every 30 years following a similar argument.
Looking at the work of Scafetta in particular there are planetary beats at 30, 61, 115,130,150 and 983 years approximately. I propose that the beat of Scafetta at 30 years will probably be synchronised with the 30 year period as described above. I further propose that the 150 year beat of Scafetta may be either the fifth harmonic of the 30 year process or the 1st sub harmonic of the approximately 165 year process and I further propose that the 983 year period may be the third harmonic of the 330 year process. Neptune has an orbital period of 165 years which could be relevant here. Saturn has an orbital period of 29.5 years.
983/3 = 327.666 which is remarkably close within .7% to the 330 observed and is also very close to the 323 day periodicity in sunspot in occurrence rate of solar flares and in sunspot blocking function of Lean and Brueckner [8,9].
Further, others too have noted periodic behaviour in the solar cycle some of which fits with Scafetta’s theoretical values for example Peristykh and Damon (2003)  using a completely different approach using cosmogenic isotopes and giving evidence of around 12,000 years persistence of the 88 year Gleissberg cycle also note confirmation of the 208 year Suess cycle, a 104 year cycle and additional peaks at 150 and 61 years. The 61 year peak aligns exactly with one of Scafetta’s planetary beats as does the 150 year. They further note a much longer quasi- period process with a timescale of the order of 2000 years.
I have made a search for major climatic events in association with the periods defined above, it would seem to me that the 330 years period and its harmonic seems to feature very heavily in retrospective or hind cast climatic patterns. For example, there are approximately 330 years from the centre of the Roman warm period to the centre of the Dark ages cold period and likewise roughly another 330 years to the centre of the medieval warm period. There always seems to be circa 1000 years between the centres of very significant cold periods as far back as even the Bronze Age Cold Epoch, and similarly for warm periods. The length of the Medieval warm period is usually given as between 300-400 years and NASA defines the length of the Little Ice Age as 300 years.
Then there are two such periods (660 years approx.) to the centre of the Little Ice Age (Maunder minimum). Then the 165 year period takes us to the centre of the Dalton Minimum.
Then another 165 years takes us to 1995 possibly the hottest part of the present warm period we have known so far. However it is possible based on the above and taking, as many do, the start of the modern warming period to be circa 1850, although potentially the hottest part of our present warm period may not be reached until circa 2180.
My present prediction, nevertheless, would be that if Scafetta’s shorter cycles are superimposed on recent global temperature change, then the period 2025-2046 has the potential to be much colder before potentially solar warming resumes again. Certainly sunspot numbers and Solar Ap values have been falling like a stone recently and a similar process was seen just prior to the Dalton minimum, see also Ahluwalai and Ygbbunhay (2012)  and current trends in Air Traffic and Global Shipping may even accentuate the cooling, see Barnes (2013) .
Sea temperatures around the world have been up to a degree colder in the little Ice Age. Recently I have published a paper suggesting that at current rates that warming solar plus anthropogenic ( at least in North Wales) will only be +1.09 C by 2099 (Barnes 2015)  which is well at the lower end of the IPCC predictions scale assuming all anthropogenic warming so my best guess is the Dalton like process and any anthropogenic warming will cancel out over the forthcoming few decades and global temperatures may remain roughly static.
It would appear that the brief hypothesis I advanced here has been supported. Planetary cycles in solar magnetic effect and hence climate are predicted, evidence of which is also found using completely separate and independent methodologies such as satellite observation; sunspot observation; radio-isotope studies and planetary beat.
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11. Hindawi Advances in Astronomy, http://www.hindawi.com/journals/aa/2012/126516/